2025 NFL Conference Championships

 

Last weekend I went 4 for 4, making up for my dismal performance in the Wildcard Round. I do wish the Bears’ game had a different outcome but this season leaves me looking forward to the 2026 draft and to the upcoming season. In the meantime, we have the conference championships and I think our next to last Sunday of NFL football will be another good one. Here’s how I think things will play out:

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Sunday 3:00PM on CBS

At the end of the Broncos game, I felt like they were well on their way to Super Bowl LX. And then I heard the news that Bo Nix will be out for the rest of the playoffs. So, the Broncos now look to their backup quarterback, Jarrett Stidham, and I’m not sure what to expect from their offense this Sunday. But then, of late the Patriots’ offense has been playing like they have a backup behind center. I think this one will come down to the defenses. For the Broncos to win, they will need to force multiple turnovers. I just don’t think they will be able to do enough, and I give a slight edge to the Patriots’ defense. The Patriots win the AFC:

Patriots 20 Broncos 13

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seatle Seahawks

Sunday 6:30PM on Fox

Division rivals face off in the NFC championship game. These teams split their regular season match ups. This one is simple as it comes down to Sam Darnold. Darnold does not have to have a spectacular game, but he does have to protect the football. Points will be at a premium for both teams and turnovers will be tough to overcome. I think Darnold is up to the challenge. I also think the Seahawks D-line will put pressure on Stafford, making up for what they didn’t do in their two regular season games. I think the Seahawks win once again at home and become NFC champs:

Seahawks 17 Rams 14

2025 NFL Wildcard Weekend

 

The 2025 NFL season was full of surprises and I suspect the playoffs will be more of the same. This is a situation where the saying, “anything can happen in the playoffs,” applies and I think 10 of the 14 teams have a legitimate shot at winning it all. The first step in doing so for twelve of those teams comes this weekend in the Wildcard round. Which teams will survive and play in the next round? Here’s what I think:

Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers

Saturday 4:30PM on Fox

By virtue of winning their division the Panthers get a home playoff game, coming in as the 4 seed in the AFC. In most years the 4-5 matchup is unpredictable, but I don’t think that will be the case in this game. Yes, I know that the Panthers beat the Rams back in November, but this is one time when I don’t think you can apply much from that previous game. The Rams come in ranked #1 in points per game and yards per game. On defense the Rams are 7^th in total number of sacks by the defense and 5^th in turnover differential. Unlike their previous game, I think there is just too much for the Panther to overcome. The Rams move on:

Rams 35 Panthers 14

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Saturday 8:00PM on Prime

I grew up watching the Bears, suffering through several bad years. So, I thoroughly enjoyed watching them win the NFC North this season. I especially enjoyed the come from behind overtime win against the Packers. Unfortunately, (and it pains me to say it) I think the fun ends this weekend. I think that both offenses put on a show this weekend. Can the Bears force any turnovers? They will need to do so if they are going to win. While statistically the Bears are better on paper, I fear the Packers will be better this weekend.

Packers 31 Bears 28

Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday 1:00PM on CBS

The Jaguars might be the best team in the league right now even though it seems as if nobody is talking about them. The fact that they went into the last week of the season with a chance of earning the #1 seed was just plain shocking. But this week they face Josh Allen and the Bills, who go into this year’s playoffs without having to face their number one stumbling block. While the Bills seem to have a slight statistical edge going into this game, I think they are a very good two-man team with both of those men being on offense. They will face a Jaguars team which has just enough firepower to stand toe to toe with the Bills, perhaps even pulling off the win.

Jaguars 35 Bills 28

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday 4:30PM on Fox

The defending champions take the field at home against one of the best offenses in the league. The Eagles bring an offense that is best described as inconsistent, often playing one good half of a game and then sleepwalking during the other. Here in Philly this has caused quite a bit of concern, leaving everyone scratching their heads and wondering what is wrong. On the other side of the ball, the Niners bring a defense which has also been inconsistent. I think the Eagles’ offense will do enough to give them a chance, but it will be their defense that wins this game.

Eagles 21 49ers 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots

Sunday 8:00PM on NBC

If you had told me at the start of the season that the Patriots would win the AFC East, I would have asked how many games is Josh Allen going to miss. The Patriots have proven to be a legitimate contender and they come into this one equally matched with a good Chargers team. This might be the best match up of the weekend, worthy of its primetime slot. I think the key to this game will be the Chargers defensive line. Can they put pressure on Drake Maye and how will he respond? I think Maye will be just fine, leading his team to a home win.

Patriots 13 Chargers 9

Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday 8:15PM on ESPN

The Steelers get D. K. Metcalf back this weekend and I think we will see a different team than the one that played in the last two games of the season and against the Texans’ defense, the Steelers will need Metcalf, Warren and Rodgers to have a big game. This is a tough one to pick: another 4-5 match up where the teams seem evenly matched. When I first looked at this game, I picked the Steelers but as we are getting closer to game time, I find myself starting to have doubts. For now, I am sticking with my original thoughts.

Steelers 10 Texans 7

This should really be a fun weekend. Hopefully, my Bears surprise me and move forward along with the Eagles. What are your thoughts?

Random Thoughts for September 15, 2023

A Smart Toilet and Westworld The other day I saw an ad for a smart toilet, and while it’s not the first time I have seen an ad for one of these advanced and expensive commodes, it is the first time that I tried to figure out what they do. I also found myself thinking about the old 1973 movie, “Westworld,” starring the late Yule Brynner. Westworld takes place at a futuristic resort where robots serve guests, doing whatever is needed to help them…relax. As the robots become more aware, they decide to turn on the guests and on those who run the place. Brynner plays a particularly scary cowboy robot who becomes determined to kill one of the guests named Peter Martin (played by Richard Benjamin), chasing him through the entire resort. So, what would happen if smart toilets become self aware and decide to pull off a Westworld type rebellion? The Elimination Race of NASCAR’s Round of Sixteen Tomorrow night I hope to watch this week’s NASCAR race which will determine the twelve drivers who will move into the second round of the playoffs. One driver that I hope does well is Bubba Wallace. (Yes, admit it. I’m rooting according to skin color in this one.) With Wallace being the only black driver racing in NASCAR, I hope he earns his way into the next round. Before the last race of the regular season, Wallace refused to do any interviews as he was stressed at facing his final opportunities to qualify for the playoffs. For this he was called out by at least one of the race commentators from NBC. In fact I think I understand the pressure Wallace was under. Being the only black in the room brings a sort of pressure that is hard to explain. This, on top of the pressure of being a part of a team that is co-owned by Michael Jordan (who is used to winning) and Denny Hamlin (winner of 50 Cup races) which I suspect brings a certain level of expectation. Above all I suspect that Wallace really wanted to make the playoffs, likely for a number of reasons. This isn’t to make excuses for Wallace not doing interviews. I just want to say that I have a very small understanding of the pressure that comes with representing. Only in Philly Live in the Philadelphia area and follow the teams long enough and you realize that there are a number of things that seem like they could only happen in Philly. Only in Philly, at the end of a two week long manhunt, would the escapee be found representing one of the local teams. In this case, the escaped convict was found wearing an Eagles sweatshirt. Oh well, at least he didn’t try to sing the fight song.

2019 NFL Conference Championships

My losing streak finally ended last Sunday leaving me with a .500 weekend and an overall 19-16 record. This weekend sees the four top offenses and 1 seeds vs. 2 seeds in both conference games. Both games feature veteran successful quarterbacks facing up and coming young quarterbacks. Who will prevail?

Los Angeles Rams vs New Orleans Saints
3:05pm on Fox

How is it that Drew Brees keeps getting better? I keep hearing about what he can no longer do and more recently how his 40 year old arm is starting to show its age. Yet here he is in the NFC Championship ready for the challenge from Jared Goff. This has the potential to become a passing clinic with both teams putting a lot of points on the scoreboard. But one stat stands out: rushing yards allowed. The Saints have a huge advantage here. As a result the Rams fortunes will fall on the ability of their O-line to open things up for Todd Gurley. I think Gurley needs a 100yd day for the Rams to win. Even then I do not think they can overcome a good Saints team.
Rams 45-Saints 51

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs
6:40pm on CBS

These teams are on the path to playing what could be the game of the year. Unfortunately if you like low scoring and smothering defense this is not what you will find. Both teams will move the ball and this could come down to who has the ball last. I also think coaching will play a big part in this game especially after the 2:00 warning of both halves. I think a close game favors the Patriots.
Patriots 45-Chiefs 42

No matter the results this weekend, we are looking at a high scoring Super Bowl in a couple of weeks. These last three games should be a fun end to a great season.

2019 NFL Divisional Playoff Round

Photo by rawpixel.com from Pexels

I could have done better last week had I flipped a coin or used darts. My picks were like the kiss of death leaving me with a record of 17 and 14. On top of that the "double doink" left me feeling numb after the Bears loss to the Eagles. That game was tough on me with my two favorite teams playing each other. Parkey's eleventh missed field goal left me in a place where I could neither enjoy the Eagles win nor mourn the Bears loss. I just felt funny...just numb.

Here are my picks for the divisional playoff round, although based on last week, teams may not want me to pencil them into the win column.

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday 4:35pm on NBC

Two great offenses will step onto the field at Arrowhead Stadium. We will get to see an outstanding rookie quarterback vs. a candidate for comeback player of the year. These teams are even in every aspect except on defense. I still believe defense wins championships making a difference even in shootouts. Plus I think Hunt's actions have hurt the Chiefs on many levels. The Chiefs' home playoff losing streak continues.
Colts 35 Chiefs 24

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams
Saturday 8:15pm on Fox

I mentioned last week how the Cowboys' offense improved significantly with the addition of Amari Cooper. This improvement makes this team better than they look statistically on paper. Better offense also helps a good defense play even better. This week that defense will face an offense that has been one if the best all season. This game will come down to running backs, namely can either back be slowed down. This means both defenses will have their hands full. I think Dallas will have the advantage at the line of scrimmage.
Cowboys 30 Rams 27

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots
Sunday 1:05pm on CBS

A lot has been made of the Chargers' record on the road. While they are impressive away from home a trip to Gillette Stadium for a playoff game is an entirely different situation. The Chargers will face a Patriots team that is not a dominant team like in past years but they are still good. The Patriots offense will not stall like the Ravens last week. They will score but will their defense be able to keep the Chargers out of the end zone? These teams are evenly matched. Usually when teams are even I go with the better defense. However in this case I have to go with the Patriots who almost always find a way to overcome their own shortcomings.
Chargers 24 Patriots 27

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
Sunday 4:40pm on Fox

Forget the score of their regular season game. This is not the same Eagles team as the one that gave up 48 points in November. The defensive secondary has come together covering better down the stretch, finally taking advantage of the pressure applied by their front four. The Eagles will play 4 quarters this time around, something they had not done most if the regular season. But the Saints are 13-3 for a reason and Drew Brees is, as always, consistently good. Brees and his receivers present matchup problems which will test the Eagles' secondary. I think this game will come down to two things. First, can the Eagles defense avoid giving up big plays? They must keep the Saints offense in front of them and they cannot afford any missed tackles. Second, will the Eagles stay patient with the run? They will have to if they are to win.
Eagles 21 Saints 27

Sorry fellow Eagles fans or, based on my last week's picks, maybe this is good for the birds, bolts, Rams and Chiefs.

2019 NFL Wild Card Round

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The last few years I have enjoyed trying to pick winners in the NFL playoffs. Last year was especially fun as I watched the Eagles take home the Lombardi Trophy while earning myself an overall playoff record of 17-10. This year I get to enjoy seeing both of my favorite teams in the playoffs, though only one will survive this weekend's wild card round. I'll tell you which of my favorites moves on but first let's look at the two Saturday games.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Saturday 4:35pm on ESPN

These two teams split their games during the regular season with the road team winning each game. I expect both defenses to win the battles at the line of scrimmage forcing the offenses to play with quite a bit of discomfort. In fact both teams face the likelihood of becoming one dimensional, resting their fates on the arms (and for one team legs) of their respective quarterbacks. That opens the door for two great receiver performances by the Colt's Hilton and the Texans' Hopkins. The Texans do have an edge though, in that if either team can run the ball it will be the home team. In what should be a fun game to watch I just don't see the Colts winning twice in NRG Stadium. I think Watson outplays Luck leading his team to a win.
Colts 27 Texans 34

Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys
Saturday 8:15pm on Fox

The Seahawks have been very quiet this year, a stealth team with a solid record but without the noise that seems to surround some of the other playoff teams. They will arrive in AT&T stadium carrying playoff experience along with the league's top running game. They will face one of the league's best running backs and an offense that improved significantly with the arrival of Amari Cooper. Both quarterbacks are capable of making big plays when needed and this is likely to be a high scoring game. Which defense is more likely to make a critical stop in the 4th quarter? I think that will be the Seahawks defense giving them the win.
Seahawks 45 Cowboys 42

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday 1:05pm on CBS

I'm having a tough time with this one. On paper these teams are close. But the season's stats do not give the full picture of what the Ravens have been since they changed their depth chart at quarterback. Lamar Jackson has changed this team. I'm just not sure if he changes them enough to beat the Chargers. These teams are evenly matched. Can the Ravens defense slow Philip Rivers and a very balanced Chargers' offense? Can the Chargers slow down the Ravens' running game? The Ravens are on a roll and I believe they will move on.
Chargers 14 Ravens 27

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears
Sunday 4:40pm on NBC

I grew up in Northwest Indiana where our tv stations came out of Chicago. I watched the Bears through the Walter Payton years, suffering each season until they shuffled to a Super Bowl win. More recently I have lived in Philadelphia for over thirty years suffering with the Eagles until last year's Super Bowl victory. Now my life long favorite sports franchise is playing against my home team. In the end I'll likely feel happy and heart broken at the same time. This is also a tough pick for me as I know one of these fan bases is about to throw me off the bus.

This should be a great final game in a fun weekend. Who wins will depend a lot on Doug Pederson. Now I know a coach normally cannot win or lose a game but in this case the outcome rests on Pederson's patience with the run. If he loses patience the Bears defense will make him pay with turnovers and even a score or two. I think the Bears defense finds the end zone at least once leading to a Bears win in a tight one.
Eagles 13 Bears 14

Sorry Eagles’ fans. That hurts me too.

These are my picks for wild card weekend. Who do you think is going to win?

I heard two radio announcers complaining that while defense wins championships, low scoring defensive battles are boring. What do you prefer, a low scoring defensive battle or a shootout offensive showdown?

Second Time Around, Enjoying the Eagles' Win

I was called a front-runner as I searched for someone with whom I could celebrate the Super Bowl win. I grew up watching the Bears, having suffered a number of ups and downs. I still remember the season where the head coach kept changing quarterbacks like a baseball manager making changes on the mound. Then there was the season where so many Bears' QB's got injured that legendary running back Walter Payton had to run the offense out of the shotgun. After years of frustration the Bears won the Super Bowl. Unfortunately at the start of that season I moved to Atlanta to go to school.

There were very few Bears' fans in Atlanta in 1986 so I was alone in celebrating that win. I missed the parades and the interviews with crying and excited fans. I missed the build up during the '85 season, the excitement and the doubts as a defense that struggled early in the season became one of the best ever. I missed all the fun and excitement in Chicago as the Lombardi trophy took its place in Halas Hall. It hurt to miss out. I felt like I was not a part of things: a fan with no real connection. Having a (jealous) classmate call me a front-runner only added to the pain.

I still have an allegiance to the Bears but having lived in Philadelphia for 30 years I have grown quite fond of midnight green (kelly green as well). No, 30 years is not as long a time as some of the Eagles' fans in the area have suffered, but after not celebrating a win for 32 years I am ready for the festivities. I look forward to being in town for my second time around celebrating a Super Bowl win. This time I get to celebrate with millions of fans. I won't be alone and I don't expect to be called a front-runner. This time around I am going to drink it all in, truly enjoying the celebration.

E-A-G-L-E-S Eagles!

Super Bowl LII

I will get to my Super Bowl pick in a minute but first I have to get a few things off my chest.

I have heard it all season long. After every game I heard it said, “The Eagles have not played anyone.” It was as if Eagles’ fans are not supposed to enjoy the 2017 season because of the schedule crafted by the NFL. How is it that the Eagles’ wins did not count. Now, after defeating the defending NFC champions and team with the best defense in the league, the Eagles are one of only two teams remaining. What do they have to do for the naysayers to admit this is a good team? Is being in Super Bowl LII enough or do they have to win? Is a win enough or does it have to be a blowout?

Then there are the comments about Eagles’ fans. Yes, fans were quite naughty in throwing snowballs at Santa...back in 1968! Yes, there is a group of fans whose conduct can only be described as embarrassing. But that 1% does not speak for the other 99% who are excited about the game but disciplined. That 1% is a minor story at best, especially in light of accusations that the Patriots have in the past used some rather...unique…tactics to win championships. The focus on the fans is nothing more than a distraction. The game will be won or lost on the field.

On the field I expect to see a great game. The Eagles’ defense ranks among the best. Their offense scored rather handily against this year’s best defense. On the other sideline are the Patriots who we all know will be ready. The Pats know how to win and even with a sore hand, Brady is the best. But football is normally won at the line of scrimmage where I think the Eagles are better on both sides of the ball. That being said, will the Eagles play a full four quarters?

This season has been full of very slow starts by the Eagles, with many situations where the Eagles tried (and sometimes succeeded) in beating themselves. The Patriots will not make many mistakes nor will they take any part of this game off. If the Eagles play four quarters and cut down on their own mistakes, this is a winnable game. I think they pull it off.

Eagles 24 Patriots 21

2018 NFL Wildcard Weekend

It’s time for the NFL playoffs and after a two year break I am bringing back my playoff game picks. After the 2015 Super Bowl I had a record of 14-8 in picking playoff games. This year I hope to improve that record although this might be the most challenging year for picking the games. The NFC east looks wide open as just about any team could make a run. I think the AFC comes down to two teams, although there is a third which could surprise people. So let’s look at this weekend’s games and make sure to let me know if you agree or disagree with my picks.

Tennessee at Kansas City
Saturday 4:35pm on ESPN

This should be a fun, high scoring game as both offenses will move the ball. I think the Chiefs’ running game might be the difference. They come in averaging 118 rushing yards per game. On the other side the Titans’ defense allows an average that is below 90 yards per game. Will Kareem Hunt be able to get going against the Titans? I think he will and this will open things up for the Chiefs’ passing game.
Chiefs 35 Titans 31

Atlanta at Los Angeles Rams
Saturday 8:15pm on NBC

In the Saturday nightcap we get to see Jared Goff and Todd Gurley make their first playoff appearances. How will they handle the spotlight, especially against an experienced Falcons team? This should be another fun game, coming down to the final drive. Watch for the Rams to control the ball late in the game helping set up either a game winning drive or leaving the Falcons racing the clock to keep their playoff run alive. With home the home field advantage I see the Rams coming out on top.
Rams 31 Falcons 28

Buffalo at Jacksonville
Sunday 1:05pm on CBS

I really think the Jaguars may surprise people in this playoff run, depending on how Blake Bortles handles the spotlight. At times Bortles is very good. But in the past there have also been those “What was he thinking?” moments. If Bortles plays well and if the Jaguars’ defense plays up to their potential, Jacksonville will put a scare into the two top teams in the AFC. But first they have to get past the Bills. With LaSean McCoy questionable for the game, I think the odds favor Jacksonville. If he is healthy the Bills have a chance. Without McCoy there will be too much resting on Tyrod Taylor.
Jaguars 24 Bills 14

Carolina at New Orleans
Sunday 4:40pm on Fox

On paper these teams seem to be evenly match. Digging deeper we find that the Panthers’ leading rusher is their quarterback. With Cam Newton under center I guess I should not be surprised. While this might work in the regular season I suspect it will become a liability in the playoffs. With the Saints bringing a much better balance on offense a lot will rest on the Panthers’ defense. I think they will play well enough to keep this one close. In the end I think Drew Brees will find a way to get all of his weapons working, leading to a Saints win.
Saints 20 Panthers 14

Enjoy the start of the playoffs this weekend. I think the NFL has served up what should be a very entertaining round of playoffs.